One Race at a Time

A full two years away from the greatest political show on Earth (the 2008 presidential election), numerous stories have been devoted to Those Who Would Be President.

Before another candidate heads to New Hampshire and before South Carolina Republicans hold their first presidential debate (May 15, 2007) there are a number of candidates who have a lot riding on this year's election. For them, the sports clich� of "taking it one game at a time" could become a great motto, because the 2006 elections basically determine if they have the clout, money and support to run in 2008.

I've narrowed the list of two dozen candidates down to the five who have the most riding on the outcomes this year. The numbers build to the one with the most to lose (George Allen).

5. U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wisc.

Feingold has pretty much faded away since a round of buzz was following him last spring. But if 2006 is really about Iraq and Iraq alone, and if anti-war candidates are successful, Feingold will have a new level of clout as a Democratic candidate for president. If not, he may not reach out beyond the leftist niche he already appears to own.

4. Gov. Tom Vilsack, D-Iowa

Ever since political wags began mentioning Vilsack as a potential vice presidential pick for Al Gore in 2000, three words always preceded his name: the popular governor. With Vilsack leaving office this year, we will see for the first time just how popular he really is.

So far 2006 hasn't been that kind to him. First, his all-but-hand-picked successor did not win the Democratic primary for governor. Then there was the Des Moines Register poll in the early summer ranking him fourth among his fellow lowans as their choice for president. That poll came around the same time an embezzlement scandal that involved his appointees in state offices simmered to the surface.

Currently, the race to replace him is considered a toss-up. If the Democratic nominee, Chet Culver, loses, Vilsack's coattails don't exist, making him hardpressed to get anywhere in the presidential sweepstakes.

3. Former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.

No Democratic candidate appears to be in a better position in Iowa than Edwards. Vilsack's candidate lost the Democratic primary for governor, to a candidate that Edwards backed.

No potential candidate has traveled more or worked harder in support of local candidates than Edwards. If enough of these candidates win, he should have a strong national network of powerful Democrats in his corner that could rival Hillary Clinton.

2. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.

He has already been called the weakest Senate Majority Leader in half a century by most Capitol Hill observers, said Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. His failure to push nearly any issue through the Senate has already bruised him to the point that he's going back to his home state for a county Republican dinner where he'll introduce the keynote speaker: his rival, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The buzz around a Frist presidential run has fizzled out this year, but if he's still testing the water, he will find them extremely cold if Republicans lose control of the Senate. Frist could get all the credit if the GOP holds on to its majority, but if not, he gets the blame.

1. Sen. George Allen, R-Va.

Life was pretty good for Allen a year ago. He was the hot candidate among Washington conservatives. Columnist George Will even traveled with him to New Hampshire. He was so brazen in those days that he committed a major no-no: raising money in early primary states - for himself.

But he is glad he did that now. Allen is facing one of his toughest challenges for re-election this year against former Navy secretary (and former Republican) James Webb. Virginia is still a Republican state, and the senator is expected to keep his job. Yet there is a lot of attention focused on this race, and Webb has a brilliant campaign team. If Alien loses, he is not only out of the Senate, but he won't have a viable argument to present to fund-raisers that he can win and will have no choice but to drop a presidential run.

[Author Affiliation]

James Pindell is editor of politicsNH.com and a frequent commentator on cable and broadcast networks.